Thursday, May 21, 2009

Sluggers do 75% of their damage in 25% of their games

Or do they?

I've heard this number thrown around like gospel on a certain podcast and ever since I first heard it I wondered if it was based in fact. Well I had not seen anyone else do this so I figured I'd give it a shot.

I based the scoring off the scoring in my league (single =1, double =2, triple = 3, HR =4, Run =1, walk = 1, RBI = 1, SB = 2)

Here's what I found:

Sluggers
Pujols - 58/86/99 (FPTS from top 1/4, top 1/2, and top 3/4 of all games)
Sir Albert scores 58% of his fantasy points in the top 25% of his games. Slightly less than theorized 75%.

Dunn - 76/105/112
Adam DOES score ~75% of his points in 25% of his games. At first glance it appears the numbers are off...how can he score more than 100% of his points in only 75% of his games? Well, with negative points for K's big sluggers like this can rack up quite a few negative games (in Dunn's case 30 of them)...that's how

Uggla - 83/113/117
Danny boy is maddening to fantasy owners...and now you know why. If you don't catch his hot streaks you miss nearly everything he has to offer. He scored 86% of his points in only 37 games!

More analysis on slap hitters to come later...

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